Weathering Uncertainty: Your Competitive Advantage

Sometimes the best way to find out if it’s raining is simply to stick your head out the window to see if you get wet. But by then, your weekend plans are already toast... wet toast. Brand managers and meteorologists have more in common than you might think. We all deal with complex and sometimes unpredictable patterns, we are asked to predict the future with incomplete information, and we lean on our technology and people to develop better insights.

As anyone in Phoenix will tell you, the weather this past weekend was atypical. This time of year is usually HOT here. I feel like it’s been sun-blasted, bone-dry and over 105 degrees these last several years. October is just another month of Summer, although with cooler mornings. This past weekend, on the other hand, was dripping wet. The weather says we broke single day rainfall records on Saturday and then we broke them again on Sunday, and our flood watches have been extended as we expect to get a bit more rain through today even.

While there is something wildly fascinating about unexpected weather events, and there are a number of angles to examine, what I find most interesting is how the meteorologists communicate that information. Think about it, much like a Brand Manager using data, trends and velocity to try to determine how best to position a product or service in the marketplace, the weather forecaster is doing much the same thing. There are dips in barometric pressure here or swirls in wind patterns there, that when examined holistically with satellite images, radar, data and computers, can provide a fairly reasonable expectation for what is coming. BUT when something out of the ordinary happens, those same meteorologists need to react, translate the insights into actionable information that the decision-makers can use; which in this case is someone deciding what to do with their weekend plans.

The National Weather Service provides probability ranges, updates their models, collects new data, confer with experts, issues communications based on uncertainty. Brand teams work internally with their agencies, market researchers and analysts to develop an understanding of where demand for a product or service may be headed, they develop surveys, questionnaires and discussion guides to collect new data, they rely on tools and get industry data from groups like Circana/IRI or Kantar, and then weave that all together into messaging, promotions, and strategic decisions that can mean the difference between leading the category and losing share.

Something that is true about the weather that meteorologists usually do a good job of navigating: the goal isn't to eliminate uncertainty, it's to navigate it effectively. It's to communicate it honestly. People get upset when their weekend plans get rained out, but they are more understanding of it if they have been told in advance about their odds of success. If they’ve been told there was a 30% chance of rain beforehand, they can plan accordingly. Likewise, Brand Managers should similarly provide their leadership with transparency as market trends and demand become known. The earlier you can react to market changes, the more likely it is you will retain market share. The earlier in a product lifecycle you know if something is working or not, the easier it will be to change features, adjust prices, develop new packaging, etc. - early on before a brand has broken ground on real estate in the consumer’s mind.

While it’s important to stakeout a position in the marketplace, it is important to use the data we get to make changes in our predictions. Meteorologists do this to great effect, incorporating transparency in their communications to provide nuance and actionability to their insights (Do we go golfing? What are our backup plans?). Good brand managers stick with bad predictions and sales suffer, but the best brand managers and their teams adjust as needed and react when that unpredictable hurricane shows up in the marketplace. After all, if Phoenix can get two inches of rain in a single soggy October weekend, anything is possible. The question is: are we paying attention, communicating honestly, and moving fast enough to adjust?

How about you? What unexpected 'weather' has hit your brand recently? How were you able to react?

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